Wednesday, June 18, 2008

prediction come true

So I don't come out say this stuff too often (atleast I'd like to think that). But sometime in January/early February it was my opinion that presidential candidates based on the east coast (Guiliani, Romney, Clinton, Edwards) were having and would continue to have a tougher time connecting with people west of Virginia and East of California (generally speaking). Candidates like Obama and McCain seemed to have more success in these areas.

I based this off of looking at the results of Presidential elections for the past 50 years, taking a look at the home state of each candidate. This is mostly an extension of the whole red state blue state concept but looking to the past its not a new concept or atleast it shouldn't be. Both Bush's came from Texas and Clinton came from Arkansas, Reagan California, Carter Georgia. So a candidate from New York or Massachussettes... well its been a while since this was successful. Massachussettes vs. and inner state like Texas has lost since JFK (Kerry 2004, Dukakis 1988), so it seemed far fetched for New York or Mass to prevail against an inner state.

It was late afternoon when I remembered explaining this to a co-worker, I am glad I remembered.

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